Dr. Birx Outlines Estimated Coronavirus Deaths In April | NBC Nightly News

so always and that's what this slide is labeled is goals of community mitigation really highlighting that this begins in the middle and the end with community this community and the community of the American people that are going to have to do the things for the next 30 days to make a difference I think you know from that large blue mountain that you can see behind me and I just want to thank the five or six international and and domestic modelers from Harvard from Columbia from Northeastern from Imperial who helped us tremendously it was their models that created the ability to see what these mitigations could do how steeply they could depress the curve from that giant blue mountain down to that more stippled area in their estimates they had between 1.

5 million and 2.

2 million people in the United States succumbing to this virus without mitigation yet through their detailed studies and showing us what social distancing would do what people what would happen if people stayed home what would happen if people weren't careful every day to wash their hands and worry about touching their faces that what an extraordinary thing this could be if every American followed these and it takes us to that stippled mountain that's much lower a hill actually down to 100 to 200 thousand deaths which is still way too much next slide please simultaneously there was a modeler out of the University of Washington that modeled from cases up utilizing the experience around the globe to really understand how this information that we have from Italy and Spain and South Korea and China could really help us give insight into the hospital needs the ventilator needs and really the the number of people who potentially could succumb to this illness it is this model that we are looking at now that provides us the most detail of the time course that is possible but this model assumes full mitigation it's informed every morning or every night by the reality on the ground coming in from New York New Jersey and around the United States and is modeled and informed every morning so that it is adjusted so it is up-to-date every day this is the model of the predicted fatalities and mortality in the United States and as the president said it's very much focused on the next two weeks and the stark reality of what this virus will do as it moves through communities next slide please but this is a slide that gives us great hope and understanding about what is possible on the bottom of the slide where you can barely see that blue line at the very bottom that's the current cases in California the cumulative cases in California where they're doing significant testing the next line up is Connecticut the orange line is New Jersey the blue line is New York the yellow line is Washington we all remember Washington State it was just a month ago when they started to have the issues in Washington State but they brought together their communities and their health providers and they put in strong mitigation methods and testing and you can see what the result in Washington State and California is but without the continuation for the next 30 days anything could change next slide season so I'm sure you're interested in seeing all the states so on this slide is all 50 states and the District of Columbia but I think it shows in stark reality the difference between New York and New Jersey and other states with similar populations and urban areas our goal over the next 30 days is to ensure the states that you see the 48 across the bottom maintain this lower level of new cases with the hope that we don't have significant outbreaks in other states and other metro areas as the community comes together to work together and ensure that the health care providers around the globe and in the United States are strengthened by our resolve to continue to mitigate community by community this is done community by community we all know people are in their states and in their communities and we're very dependent on each person in the United States doing the same thing following the presidential guidelines to a tee I know it's a lot to ask because you've done it for 15 days hey NBC News viewers thanks for checking out our youtube channel subscribe by clicking on that button down here and click on any of the videos over here to watch the latest interviews show highlights and digital exclusives thanks for watching.

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